COMMENT

I can confidently predict that the old-age pension will not be reduced in the Budget next month.
While other Social Welfare payments will certainly be cut, the Government is going to shy away from touching pension payments to the elderly.
There may be strong arguments in favour of cutting the old-age pension by up to 10%. The Government, for example, can point to the fact that the cost of living has been reduced by about 6.5% in the past year, thus improving the real value of people´s incomes. And while Social Welfare payments, including old-age pensions, increased at rates ahead of inflation during the boom years, they should be reduced now in line with the rate of deflation.
But it won’t happen. No Government would be stupid enough to reduce the pension. It would be political suicide. And even if the Government wanted to do so, Fianna Fáil backbenchers would revolt and refuse to back such an unpopular move.
Nobody can ever forget the angry backlash last year when the Government decided to remove the automatic entitlement to a free medical card for those over 70. Some ministers had to flee for their lives when confronted by furious elderly people who were incensed at the decision.
It signalled a major turning point in the fortunes of Fianna Fáil. While the party had not been doing remarkably well in the opinion polls prior to that decision, they suddenly dipped to below 30% for the first time and are now stuck in the low-20s.
If they decide to strike against the elderly once more in the coming Budget, do not be surprised if support for Fianna Fáil sinks to less than 20% in the next post-Budget opinion poll.
The elderly will, of course, have to suffer some pain in the Budget – along with most other sectors. There will be reduced services; they will have to pay carbon tax and they will also have to pay the proposed levy of at least 50c on every free prescription from their doctor.
But any attempt to reduce their pension will be a bridge too far for any government to cross.
People still talk about a previous decision by a previous government to reduce the pension. And that was all of 84 years ago – long before most of us were born.
It is still used as ammunition by some Fianna Fáil people to attack Fine Gael.
Nobody expects anything but a very tough Budget on December 9. And we can look forward to more of the same in 2010 and again the following year and the year after that.
The Government – along with the Opposition parties – tell us they need to cut €4 billion in public spending this year and by similar amounts in each of the next few years. But they will not agree on where the money can be saved. And that is one of the major problems, as far as I can see, with Irish democracy. No matter what the Government – any government – propose to address the economic crisis, the Opposition will attack it.
It happened during the mid-’80s when Garret FitzGerald´s government tried to tackle the economic crisis of those years. The Opposition, led by Charles Haughey, carried out a relentless attack against the cuts imposed by the then Fine Gael/Labour coalition.
The Labour Party were eventually unable to take any more so they resigned from the government in January 1987. That led to Charlie Haughey´s election as taoiseach and he proceeded in government to implement the very same health cuts that he had previously so viciously attacked during his years of opposition.
Although they say that a week is a long time in politics, nothing really changes. No matter what announcements are made by Brian Lenihan in his Budget next month, they will be attacked by each of the three parties in Opposition.
They will be attacked for the sake of attack and for political advantage, rather than for sound economic reasons.
In an ideal world, all the political parties would sit down together and draw up a plan to beat the recession. That plan would, of course, have to be revised from time to time to take account of changing global and national circumstances. And every revision would be done in consultation.
Don´t tell me this could not be done.
If Ian Paisley´s DUP and Gerry Adams´s Sinn Féin were able to sit down together in Government in the North, surely Fianna Fáil´s Brian Cowen and Fine Gael´s Enda Kenny could agree on a Budget for the good of the country.
And don´t tell me this is a crazy idea. We are crazy not to try it. It is not enough for the government chief whip Pat Carey to tell the Opposition this week that they will listen to and take account of Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin proposals on how to save €4 billion. They must agree to sit down together until they come up with an agreed Budget.
They should meet behind closed doors and avoid sniping at each other in public. Eventually they should emerge and say to the public, “This is our plan. We have all agreed to it. We believe it will bring an end to our current problems.”
We have a crisis on our hands and it can only be solved by a unified approach. The various parties can then revert to their usual antics once the crisis is over.
But, of course, it will not happen. All the parties will continue to put party before country.