I don’t think Fianna Fáil will get too carried away by the latest public opinion poll in this week’s Sunday Business Post that showed them narrowing the gap with Fine Gael.
The main point of the poll is that if a general election were held now, Fine Gael and Labour would romp home with a good overall majority. It also showed Fianna Fáil leaking seats all over Dublin.
The poll does not surprise me. I have spent all the past week in Bertie Ahern’s constituency of Dublin Central and have spoken to a lot of people that I know voted for Fianna Fáil down through the years. I was amazed at the change of attitude among those people over the past year or so. The bulk of the people I spoke to – and remember these were what I would have thought were dyed-in-the-wool Fianna Fáil supporters – would now vote for anybody but Fianna Fáil. No wonder Bertie Ahern’s brother Maurice could only come in fifth place at the by-election here last June.
They are disgusted with Fianna Fáil. As far as they are concerned, Fianna Fáil are spending their money on saving the jobs of wealthy bankers but doing nothing to save the jobs of ordinary workers.
That is the perception. They are under the impression that the last budget made matters even worse, that is, made the rich even richer and the poor even poorer.
I tried to explain that the Government had to cut back on spending as we were living far beyond our means even in the Celtic Tiger years and had to reduce, for example, social welfare payments while at the same time dealing with a crisis in the banking sector.
I don’t think I convinced too many people. They are angry and when people are angry they do not listen to reason.
It was not a question of blaming Fianna Fáil for causing the crisis but of blaming Fianna Fáil for that party’s handling of the crisis. They believe there is one law for the rich – bankers, developers and politicians – and another for the poor – the unemployed, the sick and low-paid workers.
Remember, I am talking here about people who formerly voted for Fianna Fáil. Others, who have voted for Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Fein and for the late Independent TD Tony Gregory, blame Fianna Fáil for causing the problem in the first place.
Fianna Fáil’s first task will be to win back those former supporters. They have no hope of getting back into power unless they can do that. But having witnessed the depth of anger among those former supporters over the past week or more, I think they are going to have an uphill battle.
However, while Fianna Fáil will not be carried away by the latest opinion poll, they will see some light at the end of the tunnel. The previous Red C opinion poll carried out before the Budget showed Fianna Fáil on a very lowly 23% with Fine Gael on 36%. That is a margin of 13%. Now with Fianna Fáil on 27% and Fine Gael on 34%, the margin has been cut to seven per cent. That is a significant difference. If the margin were reduced by a similar amount before the next poll then Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would be neck-and-neck with everything to play for.
The main objective for the two parties in government will be to stay together for as long as possible and do as much as they can to avoid a general election.
The poll also showed that the Green Partly is just about holding its own.
The Government is far more stable now than it was a few months ago when it looked as if it might fall apart on any one of a number of issues. And the latest poll will help to keep it together. They know that if they go now Fine Gael and Labour will be able to form a strong government between them that should last the full term.
The best thing that Fianna Fáil have going for them now is Brian Lenihan. Hopefully his health can withstand the rigours of carrying out his duties at Finance over the coming months. But there is a confidence in Lenihan that is absent when referring to most other members of the Government. He has to be to the forefront in explaining what has to be done to get the economy moving again. But the extent of his involvement is going to depend on his health.
There are no obvious obstacles to be overcome by the coalition in the foreseeable future. But obstacles – or events – can arise at any time to destabilise governments. We still have a long way to go before our finances are in order and the Government will have to bring in another harsh budget at the end of the year.
While Tanaiste Mary Coughlan has refused to rule out further cuts in public sector pay it is hard to see how the Government can go down that road once again and survive.
Therefore, I think we can expect that the emphasis will be on income tax increases in the next budget. No matter what coalition is in power.