We need consensus to inspire some confidence

COMMENT

AN early general election is the most likely outcome of events that occurred on the political stage this week. It was another bad week for Fianna Fáil, for the country and for Enda Kenny.

The Government’s tiny majority in the Dáil got even smaller with the resignation of maverick Donegal TD Dr Jim McDaid. It will even be smaller at the end of the month if, as expected, Sinn Féin win the by-election in Donegal South West. People are really getting cheesed off Fianna Fáil.
Borrowing got more expensive for the country and, as I write, it stands at a new record of more than 8%.
Last Sunday saw another humiliating performance from Enda Kenny, who was unable to explain on radio what would happen HSE staff when Fine Gael abolishes that organisation.
Still, the Fine Gael leader remains on course to succeed Brian Cowen as Taoiseach. While even some of those who supported Kenny in the last heave are now admitting that he has not got what it takes to be leader of the country, there are no immediate threats to his leadership of Fine Gael. The earlier the general election comes, the better for him. His opponents in the party are not going to move against him on the eve of an election. His future is ahead of him.
The opposite can be said of Brian Cowen. The future is behind the present Taoiseach. The latest Red C opinion poll in the Sun newspaper this week showed his support has now slumped to a new low of 11%. Enda Kenny’s support may be low but it is more than twice that of Cowen, at 23%. Eamon Gilmore is once again way out in front in the popularity stakes.
For Fianna Fáil, the whole edifice appears to be crumbling. The party that was once noted for its discipline behind the leader, is collapsing. Several TDs have now come out in public to say they will not support the budget if old-age pensions are going to be cut. The party is now in such a weak state that not alone is it being dictated to by disloyal backbenchers like Noel Flynn from Cork but also by outsiders like Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae.
Perhaps an early general election might be the best answer to the country’s woes. The most likely outcome would be a Fine Gael/Labour coalition with a large majority. The problem with that is that Fine Gael are closer to Fianna Fáil than they are to Labour. Still, I imagine that in the interests of stability – and in the interests of holding on to their jobs – Fine Gael and Labour will be able to iron out their differences and cobble a platform together.
But is Enda Kenny the man this country needs to lead us out of the recession? Sin ceist eile. Is Eamon Gilmore?
Certainly, there is far less confidence in Brian Cowen than in the others and the longer he stays in office, the less confidence he is going to inspire. I hate to admit that because I personally believe in Brian Cowen’s overall ability. It is his misfortune that he came in at a bad time. However, that’s the nature of politics. As in sport, political leadership is a lot about luck and Brian Cowen is not a lucky leader.
So to Olli Rehn. The European Commissioner has told us a few things about our economy and about ourselves that we may or may not have liked to hear.
He has told us, for example, that we are a low tax country and that this will have to change. I don’t think we should argue with that. However, we have a problem with the specifics. We are certainly against any increase in corporation tax. I expect there will be uproar if there is any attempt to impose a property tax or water charges in the budget.
We are all in favour of raising income tax levels – as long as they affect those who are earning more than ourselves.
One message that Mr Rehn tried to hammer home will almost certainly be ignored by those it is aimed at. That is the question of political consensus. He stressed that it is always to the benefit of a country in a difficult situation if a cross-party consensus could be found.
That’s a no-brainer but it’s a message that is lost in a political atmosphere where party is more important than country.
I have been preaching that message so often in this column over the past year that I fear I may be boring readers.
I keep on going back to it because of my firm belief that we will not get out of the recession unless our political parties can get their acts together.
Under the present climate, any plan put forward by Fianna Fáil will be attacked by Fine Gael and Labour and any plan suggested by Fine Gael and Labour will be rejected by Fianna Fáil. Any plan put forward by the Opposition will not be judged on its merits but rather on political grounds.
So I expect the budget is going to be opposed by Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin no matter what is in it. Next year, if they are in power, whatever budget is put forward by the Fine Gael/Labour coalition will be opposed by Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the Greens if they are still represented in the Dáil.
You cannot really blame them if they have no input in the budget. You cannot have a proper consensus without negotiations and there were no meaningful negotiations with the Opposition in regard to whatever measures are contained in the coming budget.
There is not that much difference between the Government parties and the two main Opposition parties that they could not reach consensus if they were interested. My firm belief is that all the parties should have been involved in framing the budget for this year and in drawing up a national plan of recovery for the next four years. I believe it would have created confidence among those who lend us money that we would be able to pay them back.
There can be no confidence in us abroad if we cannot agree among ourselves.