Like it or not, it’s Enda for Taoiseach

We will have to get used to addressing Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. Sounds good if you’re a blueshirt or from Mayo. He will be the first Mayoman to achieve that high office, although a former taoiseach, one Charles Haughey, also had some Castlebar connections – apart, of course, from the fact that Enda’s wife, Fionnuala, was Charlie’s press officer back in the 80s.

Enda Kenny has to be given credit for getting to where he is today although he inherited his seat from his very popular father, Henry Kenny.
While Enda might be accused of having little to inspire people, he has managed to stay at the top in Fine Gael through the good years and through a few bad ones as well.
He made his opponents within the party look like fools last summer and he is now on the verge of making all of us who forecast that he was going nowhere, also seem like idiots.
Those of us who claimed that Enda was the fool and the idiot now have a lot of humble pie to eat.
The worst that we can say about his performances on all the TV debates was that he made no mistake. Those debates, especially this week’s one with Eamon Gilmore and Micheál Martin, were going to expose him as an imbecile who couldn’t possibly be put in charge of this ailing economy.
They did no such thing. He was ok in the debates. On Tuesday night he let Micheál Martin and Eamon Gilmore slug it out between them on several occasions, sit back like he was the good chairman, smile and act like a taoiseach. On other occasions, under questioning from Martin, he turned those questions into attacks on Martin’s own record.
So if he was ok, he was competent. He will have satisfied his own supporters. And that’s the best I can say about his performance. And is it not ok to be able to say that? If he is ok as Taoiseach that will be fine with me.
If, in five years’ time, we can say that he was ok and competent in his handling of Ireland’s many problems we will all be happy. It is a pity that we cannot say that about some of his predecessors.
It is impossible to say who won or lost any of those debates or whether they will have any influence on how people are going to vote this Friday.
Like a song contest, everybody thinks their own man came out on top. Where there is no knock-out, there is no clear-cut winner or loser.
The only certainty is that Enda Kenny will be elected Taoiseach in a few weeks’ time. Well, it is as certain as anything we can be sure about in the future. Barring a major accident we will be calling him Taoiseach Enda Kenny in a very short time. How long he will serve as taoiseach is a question nobody can answer.
Another certainty is that Clare is now blueshirt country. De Valera must be turning in his grave. For the first time in local politics, Fine Gael are certain of two seats in Clare with the possibility of a third. Who could have believed this would ever happen?
If Fine Gael get three seats in Clare and that trend is repeated all over the country Enda Kenny will have no trouble in getting his overall majority and will not have to depend on Labour or on any of the Independents.
The election campaign was a triumph for Fine Gael. While no votes have been counted yet, the party ran a good campaign and over the course of the past three weeks, support – if opinion polls can be relied on – has increased from the low or middle 30s to the high 30s. Not enough for an overall majority but enough to put them in the driving seat.
The Labour Party will be disappointed that, as support for Fine Gael increased, their own support dropped by about the same amount. Over the last week Labour has had to finally admit that Eamon Gilmore is not going to be taoiseach and that the best thing they can hope to do is hammer out a joint programme with Fine Gael.
Fianna Fail will also be disappointed that their support seemed to be stuck around the 14% to 16% mark. At the start of the campaign, the new leader, Micheál Martin, hoped they might achieve a figure somewhere around the 25% mark and ahead of Labour. That is not going to happen. The gap between where Fianna Fáil now stands and 25% is too wide.
There is still the remote possibility that they might bridge the gap with Labour but that would be wishful thinking on Fianna Fáil’s part.
The vital transfers that Fianna Fáil need to win those final seats are not going to be available. At this stage I cannot see Fianna Fáil winning more than 30 seats. Micheál Martin may have to settle for around 20 seats – a humiliating result for this once mighty party.
It is strange that while there seems to be good personal support for himself that is not transferring to Fianna Fáil.
Micheál Martin cannot really be blamed for the misfortunes that have hit Fianna Fáil and the country. He was in an impossible situation in all the TV debates in trying to ward off attacks on the most hated Government since Independence.
However, he handled himself well, and in the view of many neutral viewers, he came out on the winning side. He is the one bright hope Fianna Fáil have facing into a very uncertain future.
It is also difficult to judge how many seats Sinn Féin are going to win. They should certainly double their present Dáil representation of five TDs, but whether the party makes the break-through they would be hoping for is very much in doubt. I would predict 13 seats – at the most – for Sinn Féin, which would be a very good result for them.
Anyway, a lot of these questions will be answered in a day or two.