FF could be toxic to ‘Yes’ campaign

WITH all due respects to Micheál Martin, if he wants to see the new European fiscal treaty passed, he might be better off if he didn’t get too involved in the referendum.
The Fianna Fáil brand is still too toxic. I fear that the more Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil call for a ‘Yes’ vote the more people will be tempted to vote ‘No’. 
This once mighty party that dominated Irish political life for the best part of a century has been languishing around a miserable 17% in the opinion polls for more than a year now.  The two most recent polls put them in third place behind Sinn Féin and far behind Fine Gael who, despite all the harsh measures imposed on the electorate in recent months, continues to be the most popular party around. 
No matter how hard he tries, Micheál Martin will not be able to mobilise his shell-shocked troops to go out there and canvas for the new treaty. 
Delegates at the party’s Ard Fheis in Dublin at the weekend were underwhelmed when he mentioned Europe in his keynote speech on Saturday night.
Again, according to the opinion polls, there is a good majority in favour of the treaty.  Whether that will hold up throughout the campaign is a question that only time can answer.
It is not easy to say what kind of support Éamon Ó Cuív might have within the party.  I believe he will have significant support in the  Connacht/Ulster region, but the majority of the party will back Micheál Martin, as was shown at the Ard Fheis. 
There is no doubt that Mr Ó Cuív is very sincere in his views – something that is most unusual among politicians.  But I believe the younger people in Fianna Fáil want to move on.  They are ashamed about past events and were embarrassed by the presence of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern at the Ard Fheis.
But Micheál Martin went as far as he could possiby go when he apologised for past mistakes.
It is so easy and so popular to blame Fianna Fáil for the death of the celtic tiger.  But they were not solely to blame. However, the collapse in the world economy and the crisis in the eurozone began when they were in charge here. Governments all over Europe are still paying the price for being in power when the storm raged.
We were all happy to go along with government overspending during the boom years.  I didn’t hear anybody in the opposition parties complaining about the generous increases granted by the then government to old-age pensioners, to unemployed people and to other social welfare recipients in the good years.
As Micheál Martin pointed out, “Other parties were demanding policies which would have made things worse  – that’s for them to answer”.
They have not been called to answer; they were awarded the highest number of seats they ever recorded at the last general election.
I am not an apologist for Fianna Fáil but I believe in fair play.  I also believe that Brian Cowen loves his country as much as any man. What he did when he was Taoiseach was done with the best of motives.  He and his government certainly made some terrible mistakes, but they were not blessed, as some of us seem to be, with the gift of hindsight.  I am fairly sure that if Enda Kenny won the 2007 General Election rather than losing by a handful of votes here and there, he would have followed the same basic policies that Fianna Fáil in government did.  Fine Gael and Labour are now in Government and now implementing the Fianna Fáil policies they so roundly condemned up to a year ago.
That’s politics for you.
All that, however, does not excuse Fianna Fáil. They were the party in power. It was up to them to ensure that a keen eye was kept on bank lending, while at the same time keeping a tight rein on public spending.
It was up to them to ignore opposition demands for more reductions in taxation and more increases in public spending.
Certainly Richard Bruton, as Fine Gael spokesman on finance in those days, pointed out the problems that lay ahead because of government spending. But he was talking in the abstract or in generalities.  I never heard him condemn specific instances of overspending, nor any other politician either.
However, the buck stopped at the cabinet table and they have paid the price.  The PDs and the Greens were wiped out and Fianna Fáil’s future is in doubt.
Of course, Micheál Martin wants to look to the future but he is going to have to confront the past once more very shortly when the Mahon Tribunal report is published. Mr Martin promised at the Ard Fheis to expel anyone who was found by the Tribunal to have abused their position in Fianna Fáil or in elected office. Although he didn’t name him, we know who he is talking about there.
From the Fianna Fáil point of view, it was a good Ard Fheis.  Mr Martin’s swift handling of the Ó Cuív revolt seems to have put some steel into his leadership of the party.
There was also a good sprinkling of young people among the 1,000 delegates present on Saturday night.
They will have gone home renewed in their faith in Fianna Fáil but whether that faith was just a temporary little abberation or a more permanent feature we don’t know yet. As we don’t know where Fianna Fáil will be in a year’s time or in four years’ time.
It could be facing demolition but I believe the foundations are strong enough to survive and perhaps even flourish into the future.
In the meantime, they would be well advised not to spend too much time trying to convince us to vote ‘Yes’ in the coming referendum.