Uncertainty over Clare seats

THE electioneering is almost over and after Friday, all that will remain to be done is to count the votes to see who will be given the task of governing a traumatised Ireland.

In the last few weeks, Fine Gael has been performing strongly in opinion polls and some commentators feel it is possible the party could now cause a major upset and pull off an overall majority.
While that is still quite unlikely, it may transpire Enda Kenny will be in a position to do a deal with Independents and the FG/Labour coalition that had seemed inevitable will not come to pass.
Clare will be one of the more interesting constituencies if the national arithmetic does get very tight, as there is a fair deal of uncertainty about where the seats will go. There is now a good chance that Fianna Fáil will get just one seat, an outcome that would have been unthinkable not long ago.
In the run-up to the election, parties have done their own polls in the county and while they need to be taken with a good pinch of salt, they all predict that Pat Breen will top the poll, with his Fine Gael colleague Joe Carey coming in second.
One poll puts Independent James Breen as high as 14% while another has him at a little over 10%. Regarding the Fianna Fáil candidates, one poll has Timmy Dooley well ahead of Dr John Hillery, while another puts them almost neck and neck. In several of these internal polls, Labour’s Michael McNamara is hitting around 12%, while Fine Gael’s Tony Mulcahy’s numbers look to be between 7 and 10.6%.
However, the point is worth repeating that these polls may not prove reliable and must come with a very serious health warning. They also don’t take into account the impact of transfers.
While independents have propped up governments in some recent Dáils, they didn’t hold strategic importance after the 2002 election, when Clare returned James Breen.
However, if he does win a seat tomorrow, he could find himself in a position to do a deal with Fine Gael. Speaking to The Clare Champion on Wednesday, Mr Breen said he doesn’t believe there will be an overall majority. “There isn’t a hope in hell that Fine Gael will get an overall majority. They will have to rely on independents or a coaltion with Labour.”
He said he would not be averse to dealing with Enda Kenny. “I would talk to anyone. I would want a small package for Clare that would secure the future of Ennis General Hospital, the future of Shannon Airport and the return of the agricultural office to Ennis.” He said that if he were to strike a deal he wouldn’t be “chopping and changing” it afterwards
Mr Breen said that other priorities would be funding for people with disabilities and the provision of some type of welfare for people who were formerly self-employed.
He said that he expects to be involved in the fight for the fourth seat. Outgoing TD Pat Breen refused to speculate on the possibility of a Fine Gael overall majority.
“I would say it’s a big task to get an overall majority. Certainly, I would like to see an overall majority because it would offer a stable government.”
Nor would he say much about the possibility of a deal being struck with independents. “We would look at every situation on its own merit. We’ll have to wait and see what the public decide.”