Two-horse race for the Áras?

AT this stage of the Presidential Election campaign, the race appears to have narrowed down to a struggle between Labour’s Michael D Higgins and the former Fianna Fáil man Seán Gallagher.

But you really cannot forecast the outcome with any confident accuracy. Opinion polls are not always right and have been found to be wide of the mark before. However, with only a week left, it does look as if Gallagher and Higgins will be the only two left standing, or running, if you like, at the final fence.
I cannot see any of the others being there at the finish. I wouldn’t put any money on Dana, Mary Davis, David Norris, nor on Gay Mitchell. Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness may be still in the race when the aforementioned four have been eliminated. But Sinn Féin candidates are not transfer friendly. You are either for them or against them.
So while McGuinness might get a respectable first-count vote, I cannot see him picking up the vital transfer votes that all the candidates would need.
That means I wouldn’t put any money on McGuinness either. However, to be honest with you, I wouldn’t put any money on any of the candidates in this race. I am not a gambling man. I burned my fingers at the races all those years ago.
But if I were to put money on the outcome, I think I would back Michael D to overcome the challenge from Gallagher.
Gallagher might or might not be ahead of Higgins on the first count but I cannot see him beating Higgins in the transfers.
Actually, I have a hunch that Michael D will pick up the bulk of transfers when David Norris, Gay Mitchell and Martin McGuinness are eliminated. And he should also get a fair amount of preference votes from Dana and from Mary Davis.
I do expect that panic might set in towards the latter end of the campaign, as certain candidates see that unless they pull some rabbit out of the hat, the game is up.
For instance, this week we had the spectacle of David Norris announcing in advance on Monday that he would have a significant statement to make later. It turned out to be such an insignificant statement that I now forget what it was all about – something about David being the best candidate in the field, I think.
It was a stunt David pulled off in order to get himself publicity. But stunts like that can actually do you more harm than good.
David Norris must be extremely disappointed with the campaign. Before it ever got underway, he was streets ahead of all the other candidates. Then he pulled out of the campaign after it was revealed that he had written letters of support for a paedophile friend. He returned to the campaign after it seemed that there was a growing demand for him to be included on the ticket. But then, alas for him, that support melted away as the campaign continued.
I cannot now see him with any chance of landing the Presidency. I am sorry for him but that is a chance everybody in politics takes. He will need a miracle now to beat Michael D or Seán Gallagher.
I am also sorry for poor Dana. The most likely outcome for her is that she is going to come in at the bottom of the poll. I would say, even at this stage, that she is sorry she ever bothered. The family cupboard has been split wide open and too many skeletons have come tumbling out.
I believe that was unfair but in politics you must be prepared to take the rough with the smooth. Dana is around long enough to know those things. Of course, she was never in a political party but she should have known that the stuff about her brother was more than likely to hit the fan during the course of the campaign. She took a gamble and lost.
I am sorry too for Mary Davis but I believe she will get over this fairly quickly and move on.
I am also sorry for Gay Mitchell. I would count Gay and his wife Norma as old friends. I would not be of the same political persuasion but I always admired Gay’s grit and determination.
He was not wanted as a candidate by the Fine Gael hierarchy, who brought in an outsider but Gay won the support of the grassroots. However, the grassroots have not been around in any great force since then.
The Fine Gael party failed to come out and support their own candidate, just as the party failed to come out and support their candidate Austin Currie in 1990. Gay Mitchell cannot be blamed for that.
He will be very disappointed with the outcome but he is a seasoned politician. He is still a member of the European Parliament and still in receipt of all the perks that go with that. He will also get over this defeat and I am sure he will have some harsh words to say about those who did not give him their full support.
As for Martin McGuinness, it is impossible now to say how he is going to regard the campaign. I don’t believe he ever wanted the Presidency. He would be lost up in the Park. His aim – and that of Sinn Féin – was to maximise the party’s strength in the Republic where it has been relatively weak up to now.
Things are looking good for Sinn Féin at the moment but their support might be very fickle. They are going to have an awful lot more work to do if they want to take over the place of Fianna Fáil in Irish politics.
As for the last two candidates, Michael D Higgins and Seán Gallagher, I am somewhat sure that one of them will win. Whoever loses is going to be very disappointed. I just hope that it will not be my old friend and fellow Clareman Michael D.