Taking a closer look at crime stats

COMMENT

THE Irish Times is currently running the results of a valuable and interesting in-depth analysis of Central Statistics Office data on crime figures from 2003 to 2011. It is valuable for a number of reasons. Firstly, it provides an overview of the period statistically but secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it allows us to compare the figures with perceptions on the ground.

Tellingly, the journalists at the Times have been cognoscente of the discontinuity between the coverage of crime in the media and how this relates to the actual figures in terms of people’s perceptions. It is safe to say that many people in Ireland are aware, if not afraid, of the threat of crime.
Despite this fact, the figures show that overall crime levels are falling. There are a number of reasons cited in the research coverage for this. 2008, the point when the money bubble burst and disposable income became a distant memory for most, was also a high point for crime levels.
According to quoted garda sources, this is a large part to do with the trade in cocaine. What was a carefree line in times of plenty has become an unaffordable luxury in the current circumstances and as demand has fallen, those in the business of supply have become less willing to take risks or engage in turf wars because the profits don’t justify it. This change has manifested itself mostly in relation to murders as a result of feuds.
The specific nature of the new figures is a perfect example of both the potential for statistics to be abused and how not to abuse them. Given that I grew up in Quin, I instantly began checking every fact I could with regard to the village when I saw the tables. On first glance, the news appeared grim.
Between 2003 and 2011 there was a 55.3% increase in overall crime reported at the station. Between 2010-2011 alone there was a 50% increase. The figures are perfectly accurate but they are nothing more than snapshots. Anyone who has passed through Quin in the last 10 to 15 years will be aware of the explosion in both accommodation and people to occupy it.
Given that the population has increased, it’s hardly surprising that there has been an increase in the crime rate. Where there are more people living in close proximity, there will be more crime to report for a number of reasons, not all related to people’s innate inability to get on with each other.
The other inherent danger in percentage figures of this kind is the exaggeration that comes from figures such as 50 or 100%. If there was an incident one year and two the next, the percentage increase would be 100% over the period. Irresponsible media can capitalise on such quirks of statistics to great effect but, thankfully, in this case a more reasoned approach has been adopted.
Despite this fact, there remains a general trend towards the headlining of crime in the Irish press. As has been said many times before, bad news spreads faster than good. This is especially true of good or bad news relating to someone else because of the driving force of fear.
My friend winning the lottery is less likely to be to the forefront of someone’s mind than their friend getting mugged in a place they visit on a daily basis. Also, to be the victim of a crime generates a war story and wisdom to be shared, whereas repeated telling of good news constitutes gloating.
For these reasons, it’s hardly surprising that crime is widely reported and a popular topic in everyday conversation. The feeling that you could be next is never far away but despite this, the overall figures for Ireland show a drop in recent years.
While the figures for Quin are relatively small, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that every crime listed in the figures represents at least one person. The effect on their lives can be devastating and this cannot be represented in cold, hard figures. For every crime listed, there is also a perpetrator. This person may commit many crimes. Many people may be their victims but their lives and circumstances cannot be represented in figures either.
The Opposition have been quick to warn the Government not to use the statistics as a “stick to beat the gardaí with”. Reductions in garda numbers and overtime and the recruitment freeze will no doubt have an effect on the figures for years to come. Despite this, the Government will no doubt argue that, in tough economic times, difficult decisions have to be made and the fact that crime rates are dropping means fewer gardaí are needed to patrol the streets and investigate incidents.
The public, overly worried about the threat of crime because of media coverage, will not be pleased by the prospect of fewer gardaí. Whether this is justified or not remains to be seen but it’s safe to say most people who will be the victims of crime in the coming years will feel aggrieved that garda numbers will be reduced.
Given that we can expect no let-up in media coverage of crime, we can safely assume that people will continue to be more and more afraid of the threat, whether this is justified by the figures or not.
Demographic changes, the unemployment crisis and continued inequality will also continue to have an impact on crime rates, in both urban and rural areas, in ways that are both unpredictable and difficult to influence. The reduction in garda numbers will make these changes almost impossible to react to in a quick or real-time fashion, which will no doubt have knock-on effects for the public perception around the issue.
The most important thing that we can take from these most recent figures is that there are still many people in the country suffering at the hands of criminals. We cannot gauge from the figures how many of the perpetrators are repeat offenders but we can safely say that in a number of cases they are. Given the conditions in Irish jails and the lack of rehabilitation for offenders, this not surprising in the least.
Garda numbers are only one part of this puzzle and it has been disappointing that the issue of victim support and offender rehabilitation have gone largely unmentioned in the discussion. Until the decent treatment of the perpetrators of crime and the victims are brought into this discussion, human lives will continue to be destroyed on both sides.