Sinn Fáil or perhaps Fianna Féin?

COMMENT

A COALITION between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin might not be as fanciful as you think.

The motion of a pact between the two Republican parties in the Dáil was put forward during the week by Fianna Fáil’s Éamon Ó Cuív but was immediately rejected by the party leader Micheál Martin and other senior members of Fianna Fáil.
It is, of course, a bit early in the day to be talking about an agreement to form a government between the two parties. But anything is possible after an election. I doubt if there would be a pre-election pact between them but if the numbers added up after the election, I believe they would be more likely to form a government between them than not to.
Who can forget John Bruton’s decision to bring Democratic Left into Cabinet with Fine Gael and Labour in 1994. Prior to that, however, the then Fine Gael leader would not touch Democratic Left with a barge pole.
Ideological differences between political parties will always be overcome if they have a chance of sharing power.
Some of us can even remember as far back as 1948 when Fine Gael shared power with Seán MacBride´s Clann na Poblachta despite the fact that MacBride had been chief-of-staff of the IRA a few years previously. Not only that but Fine Gael agreed then also not to put forward their leader, Dick Mulcahy, as Taoiseach because Clann na Poblachta didn’t want him and opted for the far less controversial John A Costello.
Of course, we also remember Charlie Haughey doing a deal with his mortal enemy Des O’Malley in 1989 and Dick Spring agreeing to go into government with Albert Reynolds in 1992, despite waging a bitter anti-Fianna Fáil campaign in the election a few weeks previously.
We also had the spectacle of the Greens in 2007 going into government with Fianna Fáil, the party they hated most in the Dáil.
However, the issue may never arise. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin may not have the numbers between them to form a government. Both parties would need to win a hell of a lot of seats at the next election to have any hope of forming the next government. It was also to be expected that Micheál Martin and the other Fianna Fáil frontbenchers would instantly dismiss the suggestion of forming a coalition with Sinn Féin.
Anything they might say at this point to boost Sinn Féin would only put another nail in Fianna Fáil`s coffin. Having resigned from the Cabinet recently, Éamon O Cuív could say what he liked.
Fianna Fáil is – or was – a break-away party from Sinn Féin. In time, it became the biggest party in Ireland, while Sinn Féin faded away. That is no longer the situation. Fianna Fáil now has 19 seats in the Dàil, slightly more than Sinn Féin. But recent opinion polls have shown a surge in support for Sinn Féin, while Fianna Fáil remains stuck in third or fourth place.
The present Government parties – Fine Gael and Labour – will probably lose seats at the next election but that is not a foregone conclusion. A lot will depend on the state of the economy at the time. Both parties can afford to lose a lot of seats and still be returned to power. They could, of course, fall out before the election but no matter what pressure is put on him by backbenchers or members of the Labour Party, Eamon Gilmore and most of his Cabinet colleagues are determined to stay in power for the long haul.
They will have to bite several more austerity bullets over the next few years but their teeth are very strong indeed and not alone will they bite those bullets but they will swallow them too. So while the Government could break up at any time, I do think they will stick together to the bitter end. If the Government survives, we will have to wait nearly four more years for the general election. By that time we might have a different Ireland, with all our economic problems behind us. Then again, we might not. The hated household tax, universal taxes, property tax, water rates and septic tank fees, along with increases in income tax will surely still be a very live issue. Hopefully, people will have more money to pay them than they have now.
Fianna Fáil is forced to support most of those extra taxation measures, having initiated them themselves. Sinn Féin, on the other hand, has the luxury of being opposed to all of them.
That, surely, is the main reason why Fianna Fáil are still languishing in the opinion polls, while Sinn Féin continues to grow.
Most of the political parties here pretend they would never do a deal with Sinn Féin. But take that with a grain of salt. Even Fine Gael would do a deal with Sinn Féin if they needed Sinn Féin support to form a government. If Ian Paisley`s Democratic Unionist Party could do a deal with Sinn Féin in the North, then any party in the South could.
Eamon Ó Cuív hit the nail on the head when he warned that Fianna Fáil is doomed if it does not start to pick up support within a year. The party might have to ditch Micheál Martin and opt for a younger leader. So Micheál Martin’s present opposition for a coalition with Sinn Féin might be totally irrelevant when the time comes.
As they say, it is all to play for and the game is still a long way off.