Promoting officers on a sinking ship

Who will be the next high profile Fianna Fáil TD or Minister to abandon the sinking ship after Justice Minister Dermot Ahern?
Some say the Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey will be the next to throw in the towel. Could Taoiseach Brian Cowen himself decide to call it a day? Anything is possible in these traumatic and uncertain times for Fianna Fáil. Whether or not Brian Cowen leads Fianna Fáil into the next election, the fact is that he is faced with at least five years in the political wilderness of the Opposition benches in the Dáil. That is something a political heavyweight like Cowen would not relish. He would certainly hold his own seat in Laois/Offaly but he has nothing to look forward to in the political arena. So he made decide to call it a day and relax away from all the worries and cares of high office.
However, apart from all those senior Fianna Fáil people who have already announced their retirement or are about to do so in the next few weeks, a lot of others are going to bite the dust at the General Election.
One of the contenders for Brian Cowen’s position as leader of Fianna Fáil is Mary Hanafin. She, however, may not make it to the next Dáil as she is going to be under extreme pressure to hold onto her seat in Dún Laoghaire. Another leadership contender is Micheál Martin, whose seat in Cork South Central is also in danger. Tánaiste Mary Coughblan will also be under pressure to keep her seat in Donegal South West, especially if Fianna Fáil put two candidates forward and dilute the vote.
It can be said, however, that nearly every Fianna Fáil seat in the country is in jeopardy. Even in Clare, the stronghold of Dev’s party, neither of the two sitting Fianna Fail TDs, Tony Killeen nor Timmy Dooley can be assured of re-election. Clare will almost certainly elect one Fianna Fáil TD, but which will it be and which seat is in danger? I expect a dog-fight between the two and a lot of blood, skin and hair to be left on the floor by the time the campaign is over.
It was, of course, another horrible week for Fianna Fáil. Each week we think that things could not possibly get worse for the party. You think that when you are on the ground there is only one place to go and that is up. But there is a lot of ground beneath us, and Fianna Fáil is being buried for over three years now and might still have a long way to go down. Where is rock bottom for the party? The General Election may- or may not – decide that one.
Fianna Fáil had an excellent candidate in Senator Brian Ó Domhnaill in the by election in Donegal South West, where the party got over 50 per cent of the vote in the last general election. Despite that however, he had no chance in the present climate and ended up in third place on the last count.
If Fianna Fáil can do badly in a stronghold like Donegal South West, how much worse will the party do in other parts of the country? Like Dublin. Or Cork. Willie O’Dea will save them in Limerick. My guess is that the party may well be reduced to 30 seats after the election. However, it is still too early to estimate the results as we don’t know yet what candidates are going to be in the field. We still don’t know the date of the election, for God’s sake.
Pearse Doherty’s victory for Sinn Féin in Donegal South West was undoubtedly a great morale booster for that party. However, anything other than a poll-topping win in Donegal would have been disastrous for Sinn Féin and it is unlikely that the byelection victory will be repeated throughout the country at the general election.
Sinn Féin should be able to hold Pearse Doherty’s seat and is now also in a strong position to win a seat in Donegal North East. The party will be hoping to do better in Dublin than it did at the last election but it lost out badly in Dublin at the local elections in 2009 and suffered a number of important defections from the party since then.
It will be hopiung to pick up many of those seats that Fianna Fáil are destined to lose. So also, of course, will be the Labour Party – and Fine Gael, and anybody else you care to remember.
At a quick glance at the electoral map, I think Sinn Fein might have 10 seats in the next Dáil – an increase of six since the last election. However, I may revise that figure upwards or downwards as we get closer to the election date itself.
It should be a more formidable party in the next Dáil. With the addition of Gerry Adams and, possibly, Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin should have a higher profile down here after the election. The party should, however, heed the warning of the departing Dermot Ahern – there will be an ABA factor in the coming election. Anybody But Adams.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil will be left licking its wounds. The party is getting far more praise for its efforts from abroad than it is getting here at home where it is accused of “economic treason”.
Outsiders believe Ireland got a good deal from Europe and from the IMF at the weekend. Whereas here at home the Opposition are accusing the Government of a sell-out.
According to The Irish Times on Tuesday, Germany has admitted defeat in its campaign to see the crucial 12.5% Corporation Tax rise in Ireland. That country’s finance minister told the paper’s man in Berlin, Derek Scally, that he had been convinced by the case made by the Irish Government for the retention of our existing corporation tax rate.
We are also told that Greece is now looking for a similar deal to what Ireland got.
The Government may have landed us in this mess, but whatever mistakes were made were made on the basis of false information given by the banks and poor advice given by so-called experts. However, the buck stops at the Taoiseach’s desk. And for that he and his Ministers will pay. Accuse them of making mistakes but do not accuse them of treason.