Little things could trip up this Government

The Week in Politics
The chances of this Government surviving up to Christmas, not to mention up to next summer, are getting slimmer as the weeks pass.

Admittedly, we were saying something similar this time last year and look – they are still in office 12 months later.
However, we are now a year closer to a general election in any case and the Government could fall on any one of a number of issues that are going to arise over the next few weeks and months.
The latest threats to the Government’s stability are coming from two County Galway TDs that they could confidently rely on up to now – Independent TD Noel Grealish and Fianna Fáil backbench TD Michael Kitt – over proposed health cuts in the West.
As the deadline for the Budget gets nearer, do not be too surprised if there are further threats to the Government as other Fianna Fáil and Independent deputies who have supported the Government up to now, try to save their own skins in the face of the massive cuts that are expected.
What is really causing a lot of the tension in the Fianna Fáil backbench ranks is the huge amount of taxpayers’ money that is being spent on bailing out the banks while cutting back on money needed to maintain essential health services.
Fianna Fáil backbenchers are only reflecting what they are hearing from their angry constituents. “Ye have plenty of money for Anglo-Irish Bank but nothing for the hospitals,” is the most common complaint heard by TDs in recent months.
This, of course, is a simplistic interpretation of the current economic situation. It would cost more to close down Anglo-Irish Bank now than to keep it open.
But the reality is that Anglo-Irish is a millstone around the Government’s neck and they are going to be stuck with it for quite a while yet. If and when we get a new Fine Gael/Labour coalition government they are also going to be stuck with Anglo-Irish Bank.
It is far easier to say “get rid of Anglo-Irish Bank and put the money into schools and hospitals” than to try to explain that it is not as simple as that; that there might be even less money for schools and hospitals if the Government pulled the plug on the bank now.
It is all about soundbytes and perception and it is an ideal world for an Opposition TD who can say whatever he likes but does not have to do anything about it – for the time being, at least.
The two major issues that could bring the Government down in the short term are Anglo-Irish Bank and the Budget in December.
We are told that there will have to be a further €3 billion in savings in the December Budget but it is extremely difficult to pinpoint where these savings will be made. How, you may ask, can they possibly make further cuts in health services that have already suffered savage cutbacks in the last budget. The same goes for schools.
How can the Government order that social welfare payments be reduced once more next year? Especially as inflation could well be on the way up again, while at the same time pouring vast sums of money into Anglo-Irish and the other banks.
Meanwhile, some of the issues that gave rise to huge controversy over the past two weeks were in reality only trivial ones that were blown way out of proportion. One related to the Taoiseach lighting up a fag in Croke Park and the other was about the private use of commercial vans. Non-issues really but they were used to further demolish Brian Cowen and John Gormley.
But the silly season is still with us. We had one serious newspaper leading last Sunday with the suggestion of RTÉ presenter Miriam O’Callaghan as president of Ireland. It was a story obviously concocted in a newsroom last Saturday afternoon as the deadline for publishing approached and they were still without a good lead story to sell the paper on Sunday morning.
The yarn was well written with copious quotes from various political parties about how suitable Miriam would be as a candidate for the presidency. The only problem was that the story was not true. It was another example of a reporter not allowing the facts to interfere with a good story.
While the biggest threats to the Government are from the state of the economy, it could fall over a trivial issue or even a non-issue.
It was former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds who said that it might be the little things that would trip you up.
There is, for example, the question of an elected Lord Mayor or Mayor for Dublin. Fianna Fáil do not want it but the Greens do. Same with the holding of three by-elections to fill three Dáil vacancies.
Of course one thing that might hold the coalition together into the new year is the fear that Fianna Fáil will be decimated in an election and the Greens wiped out.