Is the treaty good or bad? Who knows?

With just two weeks to go before the referendum on the fiscal treaty, it now looks, at the time of writing, that the treaty will be passed. But a word of warning – that could all change over the course of the next 14 days. I am one of those who still have to make up my mind. I still don’t know whether the treaty is good or bad for us.

How could I possibly know? I never pretended to be an economist but even the economists themselves are divided on the issue. Some are saying that if we vote no we will have nowhere to go if we want more money to bail us out in the future.
Other experts disagree and say if we cannot get any more money from Europe then the IMF will once again step in and come to our rescue. The yes side say that even if we do succeed in getting another bailout, either from Europe or from the IMF, they can charge us huge interest rates that we will not be able to pay.
Which is the truth? If I could answer that question I would know what way to vote in this coming referendum. I suspect a lot of people out there would also like to be able to answer the same question.
It’s ok for those who are members of political parties. I bet the ordinary members of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour or Sinn Féin don’t have a clue either but they will go along with the party line. “What’s good enough for Enda – or Eamon or Micheál or Gerry – is good enough for me.” Although I suspect that members of Fianna Fáil might be somewhat divided between the yes and the no sides. If Fianna Fáil were in power they would have no problem. A definite yes but they would now also like to see Fine Gael and Labour get a bloody nose. At the same time, they wouldn’t want to see the no side led by those bloody so–and–sos in Sinn Féin win either. So a definite maybe from Fianna Fáil.
The outcome of this referendum might very well hinge on the Fianna Fáil turnout. Of course, a lot of voters will not bother their heads about the complexities of the fiscal treaty but will act according to how they feel on issues such as the septic tanks, household charges, property taxes, cutbacks in public services and other matters that have nothing to do with the treaty. But it was always thus and that is one of the things about the democratic system. It’s our choice and how we reach that choice is our own business.
I do believe the issue should be postponed. We might be voting for something that will all be changed over the next few months.
The situation in the whole euro zone now is so volatile that nobody knows where we are going to be by the end of the year. Will Greece still be in the euro zone? What about Spain? If Spain collapses, where does that leave the rest of us? What about France? What about shifts in public opinion in Germany?
Even the experts cannot predict where Europe will be in six or 12 months’ time. It would be easier to forecast what the weather will be like throughout Europe next Christmas Day.
To get back to whether the treaty will be passed, the latest Red C opinion poll published in last Sunday’s Sunday Business Post shows that 53% were in favour, 31% were against and there were 16% who did not know what way they were voting. That’s a fair indication that the referendum will be passed. But there is no guarantee. I would have thought that the yes and the no sides might be closer and I am also surprised there was not a bigger percentage of don’t knows. By the way, the poll was conducted among people who are likely to vote one way or the other on polling day. It is not taking account of those who intend to stay at home on May 31.
The poll also showed an increase in support for Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil and a drop in support for Fine Gael and Labour. You might argue that since there is no general election due until early 2016, this poll on the strengths and weaknesses of the various parties is irrelevant. Well, it is not irrelevant. The poll gives an indication of how people would vote if the election were held last week. It was not a once–off poll. It shows a definite trend in support for Sinn Féin over recent months – from 10% in the general election last year to 21%. Whereas there has been a fairly steady decline in the same period in support for Labour – down from 19% in the election to 13% now.
That is a very worrying trend from the Labour point of view and there is no guarantee the party has not hit rock bottom yet. With at least three more austerity budgets promised over the next three years the likelihood is that support for Labour – and for Fine Gael – will continue to fall. The likelihood also is that support for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, along with the smaller parties and the independents, will continue to grow.
Sinn Féin are, of course, the biggest winners in this poll and at 21%, the gap between themselves and Fine Gael has narrowed.
The big question is can Sinn Féin hold on to this support and can the party increase it. We have no way of knowing, as only time can tell. There is a possibility that the Sinn Féin gain in support is due to the high profile the party is getting in the referendum campaign with lots of TV and radio coverage.
When the referendum campaign is over, that high profile that Sinn Féin has been getting will also come to an end. Could support for Sinn Féin then start to fall away? That is another question that we will have to find out in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, for Fine Gael and Labour, the message from the leadership has to be, “Be calm, sit down and don’t be rocking the boat. Things may get worse but they will also inevitably get better. All we need is patience.”