Ghosts of elections past

With the 2011 General Election date set for February 25, Dan Danaher looks back at the highs and lows of previous elections, which show Clare is far from predictable when it comes to the final tally

1992 general election
DR Moosajee Bhamjee couldn’t vote for himself in his native South Africa, yet he defied greater odds to make political history in 1992.
The consultant psychiatrist created a political sensation by becoming the first Muslim to win a Dáil seat in Clare in November of that year.
Boosted by the ‘Spring Tide’ with support from the medical profession, Dr Bhamjee shocked political strategists in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with his performance.
The tallymen were the first to predict a major shock was on the cards. The snap election was called on a Thursday but it was Saturday at about 4pm before Dr Bhamjee was carried shoulder high by his jubilant supporters in the West County Hotel, Ennis.
Former Clare FM presenter, Caimin Jones, had excitedly proclaimed “Bhamjee will win a seat” once the late Fine Gael political guru and former senator, Michael Howard, analysed the major trends in the tallies.
Dr Bhamjee recalled concern over the future of Ennis hospital and his work promoting underage soccer as secretary of the Clare Schoolboys’ Soccer League helped him to win.
“It was felt electing a doctor would help prevent the closure of Ennis hospital. After my election, I heard a few Fianna Fáil supporters saying ‘why did Clare people vote for him, he did nothing for his county’. To be fair, there was no racist comments and I still enjoyed a wry smile. I picked up a lot of anti-Fianna Fáil and anti-Mullaghmore votes.
“My election made international news. I was featured on television and radio yet I never got any acknowledgement or recognition from the South African government or ANC.
“I remember speaking to Joe Costelloe in the RTÉ Limerick Studio after the election and I had never seen him before,” he said.
Dr Bhamjee’s election was extraordinary for a variety of reasons. Before it, the chairman of the Clare Divorce Action Group and secretary of the Clare Irish Medical Organisation struggled to get any publicity from the national media.
The Clare Labour Party found it hard to get any candidate and Dr Bhamjee was a political novice compared to outgoing Dáil deputies and seasoned campaigners Donal Carey (Fine Gael), Minister of State Brendan Daly (Fianna Fáil) and Madeleine Taylor-Quinn (Fine Gael).
In fact, he only became a Labour candidate 11 days before polling day on November 25 and the fear at the time was could he get a few hundred votes for the party to recoup their deposit. Labour leader, Dick Spring, didn’t bother taking time out to make an official visit to Clare, opting instead to visit West Limerick where the party failed to win a seat.
Dr Bhamjee’s stunning success was all the more extraordinary when you consider he only managed to secure 5,113 first preference votes compared to 6,814 for poll topper Tony Killeen, who was subsequently added to the Fianna Fáil ticket after losing out in their selection convention; 6,752 for Síle de Valera of Fianna Fáil; Donal Carey, 6,567; Brendan Daly, 5,940 and just slightly more than Madeleine Taylor-Quinn on 4,873.
The South African doctor got at least one number one in every box, which no other candidate managed to achieve including Deputy Killeen, who got no vote in two or three boxes.
The election illustrated the important role transfers and elimination play in the proportional representation system. Donal Carey and Tony Killeen took the first two seats and it became clear that Dr Bhamjee, Síle de Valera and Brendan Daly were in a battle for the last two seats.
The key to Bhamjee’s triumph was in the transfers – he secured 354 votes from the elimination of Ennis Independent Frankie Neylon, 769 from Progressive Democrats candidate Mary Mannion, 207 from the exit of Colm Wiley (FF) and a massive 1,822 from Deputy Carey’s re-election.
In sharp contrast, Deputy Daly secured just 47 from Neylon, 178 from Ms Mannion, 782 from his running mate Councillor Wiley and 348 from Carey’s surplus.
However, the most surprising distribution of votes between the two contenders came when Deputy Taylor-Quinn’s 5,795 votes were given out after her elimination. Cooraclare Deputy Daly would have been expected to get a much larger percentage than Dr Bhamjee considering a lot of West Clare people traditionally voted one-two for Daly and Taylor-Quinn and vice versa. However, Daly’s demise was sealed when he only secured a disappointing 505 compared to 466 for Bhamjee.
Securing 1,822 from Deputy Carey’s surplus took Bhamjee over the line giving him an unassailable lead of 1,164 over Deputy Daly, who fought back the tears. De Valera was elected without reaching the quota.

1997 general election
FIANNA Fáil were riding high in Clare after winning an impressive three out of the four seats in the county for the first time in 15 years after the 1997 General Election.
A number of factors contributed to this great success for the Soldiers of Destiny, who also achieved this feat in the February 1982 General Election when Brendan Daly, Dr Bill Loughnane and Slyvester Barrett took three seats with a massive 59.4% of the overall vote.
Cooraclare’s Deputy Daly was once again involved in the well oiled Fianna Fáil machine in Clare in 1997 with 7,420 votes or 15.8% of first preference votes. Tony Killeen topped the poll with 8,169 numbers ones or 17.4% while Síle de Valera secured 8,025 or 17.1%.
The final seat was won by outgoing Fine Gael Deputy, Donal Carey, who was also elected back in February 1982. One of the most extraordinary features of this election was the fact that Fine Gael only managed to win one seat, despite securing 30.1% of the first preference vote.
Shrewd vote management and a carving up of areas for the three candidates played a part in proceedings. All polled well but they were also fairly close to one another, which reduced the chances of Madeleine Taylor-Quinn winning a second seat for Fine Gael, despite collecting 6,325 number ones.
For the first time in years, Fianna Fáil entered the 1997 election in opposition after the Fine Gael-led Labour coalition left office in June of that year.
Fianna Fáil sat in the opposition benches with the Progressive Democrats and political analysts had predicted these two parties would form part of the next administration.
This had a lot of significance in Clare as Fianna Fáil candidates benefited a great deal from the transfers of the Progressive Democrats’ candidate Mary Mannion, who got a very credible 3,250 or 6.9% of the first preference share.
The ‘Bertie factor’ also provided a considerable boost for the party locally. Ahern was seen by many voters as being very personable and approachable as a leader and his popularity gave a lift to the local trio when they were canvassing at the doorsteps.
Newly elected director of elections for Fianna Fáíl, Tony Killeen, credited the former leader with making Fianna Fáil far more appealing for cross-party transfers, which play a major role in the destination of seats.
“Bertie Ahern put a big effort into helping Fianna Fáil pick up transfers from other parties. Former leaders like Albert Reynolds and Charlie Haughey didn’t do that at all, which was a major achievement for him.
“Bertie was also seen as being less combative and there was a perception that he excluded other parties less than other leaders. Old Civil War politics were breaking down and politicians were less adversarial.
People have often asked how did Fianna Fáil go from winning three seats in 1997 to winning the last two in 2002 after just a 5% drop in the vote?
“James Breen was obviously a big factor in 2002, but people forget that Brendan Daly was left with a large chunk of votes, 7,683, which were not distributed to either me or Síle,” Mr Killeen noted.
The Clare Labour Party were left licking their wounds once again after former ICA president Brídín Twist failed to meet pre-election expectations and the ringing endorsement of headquarters, including party leader Dick Spring.
Ms Twist got 1,684 first preference votes, just two more than Green Party candidate Brian Meaney.
The absence of Dr Mosajee Bhamjee, who had shocked the political establishment five years previously by taking a seat for Labour, was another significant factor.
A lot of the number ones were won as a result of his personality as distinct from being true Labour votes and they were not passed on to Ms Twist.
Dr Bhamjee told The Clare Champion the week before the 1997 General Election that he felt he had to make a choice between pursuing his career as a consultant psychiatrist and politics. The former was always his first choice, so he decided to bow out.

2002 general election
James Breen was delivering two lambs and a calf on his small farm in Kilnamona on the morning of the 2002 General Election count when news filtered through from the tallymen that he was heading to Dáil Éireann.
The former Fianna Fáil councillor, who left the party after failing to secure a nomination to contest the election, was unaware of the early tallies and didn’t know how the huge surge in support culminated in a massive 9,721 first preference votes, just 240 short of the 9,961 quota.
Photographers and cameramen surrounded Councillor Breen to record the scenes of jubilation, as he was carried shoulder high by supporters from the car park outside Coláiste Mhuire into the count centre on May 18.
Growing concern about the future of Ennis hospital provided Councillor Breen with plenty of ammunition going into the election and helped him gather thousands of votes as he was seen as a ‘hospital candidate’.
The delay in providing the Ennis by-pass was another issue that resonated with the business community and commuters tired of being caught up in the heavily congested county town.
The massive voter swing towards Councillor Breen ensured Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s first preference share dropped from 50.36% to 45.38% and  30.08% to 25.38% respectively since 1997. Labour secured 3.45% of the first preference vote with the Green Party winning 5.83%.
During his campaign, he styled himself as being another Jackie Healy-Rae but unlike the South Kerry Independent Deputy, he declined to vote for the Government and Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach following his election.
Outgoing Deputy Tony Killeen believes this decision ultimately led to Councillor Breen’s demise at the following election and felt James Breen would have been in a much better position to deliver for Clare if he had voted for the Government.
“Before the 2002 General Election, James Breen led people to believe he could be another Jackie Healy-Rae but when he went into the Dáil, he did the opposite.
“The Government didn’t need his support but he would have made it easier to get funding for Clare if he had supported the Government. To be fair, it wasn’t an easy call to make because some of the people who voted for James did so on the basis that was anti-Fianna Fáil and he could have lost their support if he voted with the Government.
“He wouldn’t have been able to predict that Deputy Síle de Valera would not run again. If James had voted with the Government, he would have placed the local Fianna Fáil deputies in a difficult predicament.
“Some people within Fianna Fáil may have taken the view that he should not be given anything, but I wouldn’t have been one of those,” Mr Killeen recalled.
Councillor Breen explained he had decided to vote against the election of Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach in 2002 because he wanted to send a clear message that Clare people were not happy with the way the county had been treated by the Government since 1997, following the loss of Shannon Airport’s status, the failure to upgrade Ennis hospital and the overall lack of investment in the county.
He pointed out too that the Government had not sought his support and instead looked for backing from Independents Mildfred Fox from Wicklow, Jackie Healy-Rae and the late Dublin man Tony Gregory.
The 2002 General Election also ended the political career of long serving Fine Gael Deputy, Donal Carey and heralded the start of a new one for Councillor Pat Breen, who was the only deputy elected for the party in the Banner County.
He polled the highest of the three Fine Gael candidates with 4,541 numbers one votes compared to 4,105 for Deputy Carey and 4,124 for Madeleine Taylor-Quinn.
Interestingly, Deputy Carey was eliminated after the third count. Councillor Breen, with 6,934 votes, was only 209 votes ahead of Taylor-Quinn in the fourth count until her elimination elected him with plenty to spare in the fifth count.
Outgoing deputy, Brendan Daly, also lost out as he finished with 7,683 while Deputy Killeen and Síle de Valera on 9,482 and 9,370 respectively were both elected without reaching the quota, which was extraordinary considering Fianna Fáil candidates usually took at least one of the first few seats in all of the previous elections.
It proved to be a disappointing election for the Labour Party as Councillor Michael Corley was eliminated early after securing 1,720 first preferences, while Councillor Brian Meaney polled a respectable 2,903.

2007 general election
THE slogan “Here comes Dooley” was seen across the county in 2007, as Timmy Dooley’s pick-up truck toured the four corners of Clare.
Apart from an unexpected hiccup in Lissycasey, which was quickly captured by eagle-eyed Clare Champion photographer John Kelly, the truck was constantly on the move to raise the profile of the East Clare senator.
The hectic pace adopted by Dooley’s drivers was just one example of how determined he and his campaign team were to succeed. The Mountshannon native seemed to be everywhere in the weeks leading up to the vote.
He often positioned himself at strategic places in Shannon at 7am in the morning with his driver and truck ready to meet people going to work in factories and companies in the industrial estate.
One of Dooley’s biggest challenges was to secure name recognition amongst the public. While his election to the Senate in 2002 had raised his profile, it was hard to gauge how well known he was throughout the county, considering he had never served on a county or town council.
He said his fears were allayed when children shouted his name while out canvassing in Ennis  just after the election was called.
He felt this was a turning point after a TG4 poll had put him at just 6%, leaving him a rank outsider in the race. However, his vote almost doubled in a Clare Champion poll to 11%.
“I started to see a trend when people started talking about the need for a deputy from East Clare. There has been a huge amount of goodwill from East Clare people when I stood,” he said at the time.
East Clare had not had a Dáil deputy since the late Dr Bill Loughnane in 1982 and this time, people were determined to ensure they grasped the opportunity at the ballot box.
Once the ballot boxes were opened, Senator Dooley became the political success story of the election, heading the poll with 10,791 numbers ones, a remarkable feat for a first time candidate.
Looking back this week, Deputy Dooley admitted up to the morning of the election, he never thought he would head the poll, despite spending five or six months canvassing door-to-door.
“It is hard to remember things because you are constantly under pressure wondering what area you have missed canvassing. You get an adrenaline rush during the campaign, which takes on a new momentum,” he said.
He was the new political kid on the block and a fresh face on the Fianna Fáil ticket compared to Senator Brendan Daly, who had been an Oireachtas member since 1973 and then Labour Affairs Minister, Tony Killeen, who was in the Dáil for 15 years at that stage.
Senator Dooley’s first preference share of 19.1% was just slightly under James Breen’s poll topping performance of 19.5% in 2002, but on this occasion, the quota was 11,278, compared with 9,961.
While Dooley’s massive haul ensured he was elected with plenty to spare in the fourth count, his high showing was bad for Fianna Fáil, as a more even return would have increased their chances of regaining three seats.
Fine Gael’s first preference vote jumped dramatically from 25.46% in 2002 to 35% in 2007, while Fianna Fáil’s slid from 45.38% to 44%.
The Blueshirts’ controversial four-candidate strategy drew a lot of criticism from the party faithful but it also brought out the voters in huge numbers for the party. A high percentage of transfers from Councillor Tony Mulcahy and Madeleine Taylor-Quinn helped secure seats for outgoing Deputy Pat Breen and the new political kid on the block Joe Carey.
The dogfight between James Breen, whose first preference vote plummeted from 9,721 to 5,218 and Carey provided plenty of drama. The then Deputy Breen claimed afterwards that he had suffered from “safe seat syndrome” after canvassers from the main political parties had told voters he was a sure cert for re-election and didn’t need number ones.
Once the boxes were opened, James  Breen’s election agent, Eugene Drennan, predicted he was short about 250 first preference votes and his prediction proved to be close to the mark. Councillor Carey followed in the footsteps of his father, Donal, who lost his seat in 2002. He prevailed in the ninth count with 456 to spare over Breen, despite failing to reach the quota. 
Tony Killeen criticised the decision of Fianna Fáil at the time to carve up the county into three districts for the three candidates, claiming it cost them the third seat and ruined his chances of an automatic ministerial post.
Senator Daly was confined to West Clare, Deputy Killeen could canvass exclusively in North Clare, while Senator Dooley was given East Clare. Ennis and Shannon were declared open areas.