General election looming?

An October general election is now on the cards, according to some of the most experienced commentators in the country.

The feeling is that Fianna Fáil will be defeated, no matter when the election is called. But if the election was held in the autumn, it would be up to the incoming coalition of Fine Gael and Labour to bring in the next harsh budget, rather than Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael and Labour would be unable to agree the tough measures that are still needed to get this country moving again. That Government would not have a hope of lasting beyond one or two budgets and the electorate would turn once again to Fianna Fáil to bring stability to the economy.
That’s the thinking, anyway, among the most senior political correspondents working out of the Dáil. It is also held by a number of prominent people in Fianna Fáil, who believe that it is only a matter of time anyway before the Green Party pulls the plug. They think it might be better to hold the election when Fianna Fáil wants to hold it, rather than when the Greens want it. If the truth were known, of course, Fianna Fáil would prefer if they never had to face an election again.
My own belief is that this Government – or at least the Fianna Fáil section of it – will want to stay in power until the bitter end, which is in exactly two years’ time.
As I have stated on numerous occasions before now, time is the only friend Fianna Fáil has. The party must hope against hope that by June 2012 the tide will have turned and that despite the poor support Fianna Fáil now has, things will be different by then.
By going to the country in October, rather than biding its time, Fianna Fáil run the risk of losing anything between 20 and 40 seats. In that situation, Brian Cowen’s own position would become tenuous. I believe he would resign immediately, rather than be voted out of office as leader of Fianna Fáil.
Certainly, we appear to be coming out of the recession and all economic forecasts are fairly upbeat. But some of that is due to the current weak state of the euro and not because of what the Government has done. At the same time, however, certain very unpopular measures taken by the Government, such as the cuts in public spending and the establishment of NAMA, have helped to boost confidence in the Irish economy and in the Government’s handling of it, at home as well as abroad.
Recent opinion polls have shown a decline in support for Fine Gael. But the gap between themselves and Fianna Fáil is still too big for the latter party to contemplate an election in the short term.
Unless there is another recession, Fianna Fáil have a far better hope of bridging the gap within two years, rather than within four months.
There is a slight problem with Brian Cowen himself, of course. His leadership is only seen in spasms. He needs to communicate the message far better than he has been doing up to now. We know he is capable of doing so. He appears to adopt an attitude of being certain that he is on the right path and if the rest of us are not too sure about that, then that is our problem and not his. Too often he doesn’t seem to feel the need to explain what he is doing.
And when you have an Opposition that will oppose everything that Brian Cowen does, then he has no chance.
However, there are some hopes now that Cowen is starting to confront the Opposition and not let them get away with opposition merely for the sake of opposition.
That will be of little comfort, of course, to all those people who have lost their jobs or whose jobs are at risk or who cannot afford to pay their mortgages. Those people, or a sizeable number of them, voted for Fianna Fáil at the last and previous elections. But they blame Fianna Fáil for the situation they now find themselves in and they have vowed never again to vote for Fianna Fáil.
It is going to be a tough uphill struggle to get those people to come back, if they ever come back. First of all, the Government will need to get those people back to work and that’s not going to be possible in the short term.
No amount of promises will satisfy people who are out of work. No matter how well the economy is doing, they will not be happy unless they have jobs themselves.
Meanwhile, the Taoiseach has shown certain leadership qualities in his handling of the Ivor Callely affair. He is aiming to show that, for a change, Fianna Fáil is no longer going to be a refuge for chancers. Although, it might take longer to change the image of Fianna Fáil in that respect than to provide full employment.
But Callely pulled a fast one in claiming more than €81,000 in overnight and travel expenses from his holiday home in West Cork to the Dáil. Too many people in politics, and especially in Fianna Fáil, believe they are entitled to fiddle their expenses at the expense of the taxpayer.
Perhaps a general election in October might provide us with a more chastened Fianna Fáil, as the party is chastised by the electorate. But I do not believe that is going to happen in the short term. I think we may have to wait another year or two.