FG still most popular party

EAMON Gilmore was right when he said on RTÉ during the week that opinion polls have “no real meaning” at this time.
Clare Fianna Fáil TD Timmy Dooley was also saying more or less the same thing on radio on Monday morning. They were both commenting on the latest opinion poll, which brought bad news for their respective political parties.
We have four years to go to a general election and opinion polls taken around now merely reflect what people are thinking around now. People’s thinking will have shifted in four years’ time.
So the polls have “no real meaning” now. Last Sunday’s Sunday Times published a poll, which showed Sinn Féin on 25%, second to Fine Gael who were on 32%. Fianna Fáil were on 16% and Labour on 10%.
If Fianna Fáil and Labour are going to ignore those figures, they will do so at their peril. Anyone would expect Labour to be languishing in the polls following last December’s tough budget, along with all the extra charges, fees, levies and cut-backs that have affected people since then.
But why is Fine Gael still the most popular party? After all, they are the major party in power and Fine Gael is at least as much to blame as Labour for all the austerity measures of recent months. Why are the electorate taking it out on Labour rather than on Fine Gael?
The fact that the Labour Party might not have had any choice in the matter is neither here nor there. The fact is that the cuts were implemented by a party that is always opposed to cuts in public spending – when they are in Opposition. Labour support is now around half of what it received in the general election.
However, Labour TDs will be hoping that by the time the next general election comes around, all that will have changed. By taking the unpopular decisions now, they will hopefully be paving the road to the recovery that will be clear to everyone in four years’ time.
But one cannot say the same for Fianna Fáil. That party appears to be in a no-win situation. Think of a Gaelic football team that is playing against a gale-force wind, which is blowing straight into their own goal. They are short most of their key players. They are losing by about six goals. Their hands are tied behind their backs. That’s Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fáil for you. How can he possibly boost party morale as they face into their Árd Feis in Dublin this weekend?
There are reports of rumblings of discontent against his leadership as evidenced by the stepping down of Eamon Ó Cuív as deputy leader. He is accused, among other things, of being a wimp at the helm of the sinking ship.
Fianna Fáil, of course, does not do Opposition very well. They are not used to that situation. But they had better get used to it. Because as things stand, they are faced with long years on the Opposition benches.
The Fianna Fáil party is blamed for all our economic woes and is not going to be trusted for a long, long time to come.
The two Government parties are basically following the same economic policies they so roundly criticised when Fianna Fáil were in power. So for Micheál Martin to condemn those policies today would display a level of cynicism that would do him and his party no good.
I am sure he would love to be in the same position that Sinn Féin are in. To be able to condemn everything the Government proposes is a luxury he does not have.
So Sinn Féin can capitalise on Fianna Fáil’s disability and on the Government’s cruelty. However, I expect all the parties will have questions to ask Sinn Féin about what the hell Aengus Ó Snodaigh was doing with all those print cartridges.
Fine Gael and Labour capitalised on Fianna Fáil’s handling of the economy before the election. Sinn Féin are not doing anything now that Fine Gael and Labour would not do if those parties were in Sinn Féin’s position today. Although I doubt If any Fine Gael or Labour TD could possibly have use for as many print cartridges as Ó Snodaigh had. I expect this story to run and run.
The Fianna Fáil situation, however, is worse than that of any of the other parties. In the normal course of events, they would be tearing into the Government and would be leading the Opposition in doing so.
But the party still seems to be suffering from that terrible beating it got at the election last year. It was the only one of the four main parties in the Dáil that was unable to fight the Presidential election and it is impossible to say at this stage whether or not it has a future.
Perhaps it needs a leader that was not associated with the last Government. But I don’t see anybody in the ranks of the parliamentary party, apart from Micheál Martin, who might be able to lead them out of the doldrums.
Éamon Ó Cuív is putting up a very strong fight against the new septic tank charges. While this might gain more rural support for the cause, he is taking the risk of losing whatever little urban support the party still has.
The fact is that septic tanks will have to be registered and will have to be maintained at a standard that will not threaten ground water and that will satisfy our European masters.
On the question of the Fianna Fáil leadership, my own view is that the man they need now is the man who brought them to where they are.  But he is gone and he will not be back. I am speaking, of course, about the former Taoiseach Brian Cowen.  He was not suitable to be Taoiseach in a recession but he would be the man who would have no qualms about tearing into the Government at the present time and would not be afraid of taking on Sinn Féin either.
Brian Cowen is history and he never had the opportunity of leading his party in Opposition.
I know it sounds like a lazy cliché but Fianna Fáil must look to the future and forget the past. It has one big advantage over Sinn Féin – it still has a core of faithful followers in every corner of this state. The party could build on those starting at the Árd Fheis this weekend.
Meanwhile, I am sure all democrats are delighted the Government has decided to allow the people to decide on the new European fiscal treaty. It’s a pity they were forced into holding a referendum rather than announcing at the start that the people would be consulted on the issue. I hope to return to this again soon.