Evading the live glare of scrutiny

HE who shouts and runs away shall live to shout another day.

That should be Enda Kenny’s election slogan, having funked this week’s TV3 debate with Eamon Gilmore and Micheál Martin.
He and his Fine Gael colleagues were beginning to run out of excuses as to why Enda could not participate. First, there was a problem with Vincent Browne. Then when TV3 offered to substitute Browne with Ursula Halligan, Enda said he hadn’t time.
He was right not to go on. Opting out of the three leaders’ debate was the lesser of two evils. Fine Gael are winning this election. They are consistently well ahead of the field. All the polls are showing Fine Gael with over 30% support, Labour on about 22% and Fianna Fáil languishing far behind on about 17%.
Therefore, Fine Gael have this election in the bag as long as they do not make some spectacular mistake. That mistake might have occurred if Enda and Fine Gael were put under live scrutiny by someone like Vincent Browne under the glare of TV lights and cameras.
As Brian Cowen might put it: “When in doubt, stay out”. Fine Gael had far more to lose by going on live television than had the leaders of Labour and Fianna Fáil, who have nothing to lose at this stage. Better to spread it out and include the leaders of Sinn Féin and the Green Party. That would leave far less time to concentrate on Enda Kenny’s weak points. Imagine Fine Gael arguing in favour of providing television time for Sinn Féin. Paddy Cooney would be turning in his grave but for the fact that he is still alive. Why not also include the leaders of the Socialist Party, the People before Profit Party, the Raving Lunatic Party and whatever party you are having yourself?
It was also safer for Fine Gael to agree to a three-way debate towards the end of the campaign when most people will have their minds made up anyway.
The fact is that Enda Kenny is a weak leader of his party. It is not merely that he is not good on television. He is not good. Full stop. That is why the brightest and the best on the front bench of the party moved against him last summer. They will give you a lot of guff now about how Enda put new life into Fine Gael when the party was down and out after the 2002 election. That can never be taken from him.
But more than ever, Ireland now needs a strong leader who will give us the confidence we need to face into a very uncertain future. We are not going to get that from Enda Kenny. This man was unable to go on television and defend his party’s interests and policies. How could we expect him to defend his country’s interests and policies when it comes under attack from powerful forces in Germany and France? Michael Noonan perhaps. Or Leo Varadker. Or Brian Hayes. I would have confidence in any one of those men putting up a good fight for Ireland in any situation. I could not see any one of them letting the side down. I wish I could say the same about the man from Castlebar.
However, in spite of his failings, he is almost certain to be our taoiseach in a month’s time, barring a major upset over the next week or so.
I am sure there are a lot of people in Fine Gael who believe the party would now be heading for an overall majority if Enda Kenny were not leader. However, they are stuck with him whether they like it or not. The country is also going to be stuck with him in a few weeks’ time.
I will not be too surprised, however, if there is another move against his leadership from within the Fine Gael parliamentary party in the next year or two. This time, I believe the rebels will have the numbers on their side. Remember, there are going to be a lot of disappointed and disgruntled TDs on the back benches of Fine Gael after Enda Kenny announces his cabinet. There are only so many ministers he can appoint, especially as he will probably have to share these with the Labour Party.
The only alternative is Eamon Gilmore but he would need a miracle at this stage to catch up with and pass Fine Gael out. As I write, there is a gap of about 10 points between Labour and Fine Gael. So I cannot see Eamon Gilmore becoming taoiseach next month.
And what about Fianna Fáil? While Micheál Martin is generally credited with winning last Tuesday night’s debate with Gilmore, the situation is impossible for him. He can make all the promises he likes because he knows he will not have the opportunity to implement them. Nobody is going to listen to Fianna Fáil promises. That is the crux for Micheál Martin and his party. The question will always arise as to why, for example, Fianna Fáil did not implement any of the radical political reforms they are now promising, over the last 14 years or so while they were in office. Fianna Fáil consistently rejected all efforts to reform our dysfunctional political system. So it is a bit rich now for that party to be talking about radical changes.
Still, Micheál Martin has to be praised for his efforts over the course of this election campaign to take Fianna Fáil by the scruff of the neck and create a new image for the party. It is no fault of his that time is not on his side. If TV debates win elections, Micheál Martin’s performance against Eamon Gilmore on Tuesday night should see Fianna Fáil do better than Labour on February 25. But there are more debates to come and a lot may change the course of this election campaign over the next two weeks. Fianna Fáil still have a mountain to climb. While they have no hope of winning the election, Micheál Martin’s performance so far may yet pay off on election day.
Meanwhile, “a good run is better than a bad stand”, might also be a good election slogan for Fine Gael.