Coalition will stay in power

I learned a long time ago that you should never predict anything in politics because anything might or might not happen. Just as in sport, you are quite liable to get an outcome nobody was expecting.
However, I am going to put my neck on the block this time and hope the axe doesn’t fall. I am predicting that Fine Gael and Labour will still be in power this time next year despite having a very rocky road to travel over the next 12 months. I will even go further and predict that they will still be together in two years’ time.
Yes, a week is a long time in politics and a year is 52 times longer and yes, the stability of this Government will be severely tested on a number of issues throughout 2013. But the two parties in the coalition will continue to believe that their only hope for survival will be to stick together, even if they have to eventually sink together.
Fine Gael may lose a few deputies during the year – on the abortion issue – and Labour may lose another deputy and/or a senator on the issue of the Government’s handling or mishandling of the economy. But having managed to overcome their differences so far, they will rule together for at least another year or two.
It would not surprise me one bit if both parties managed to survive in government until their term is up in three years’ time. That would be a first for a Fine Gael/Labour coalition Government. All previous such governments failed to last the full term.
If Labour were to pull out of Government any time, Fine Gael could form a new coalition with any of the groups now in Opposition. That’s in theory. However, if Labour do pull the plug, Fine Gael will go to the country immediately.
The election result would almost certainly see Fine Gael lose a number of seats. But for Labour, an election any time soon would spell disaster for the party.
They are going to lose seats anyway, whenever the election is called, whether the election happens in the long or short term. But their best chance for the future is to stay with Fine Gael and hope the economy turns the corner.
Although both parties can expect to lose seats at the election, they may have enough to form the next Government either on their own or with the help of like-minded Independents in the Dáil.
Anyway, to cut a long story short, I cannot see a general election happening this year or in 2014 when we will have European and local elections.
We will have a by-election this year to fill the vacancy caused by the tragic death of Shane McEntee before Christmas. It is far too early to even attempt to predict the result of that election at this stage.
The year ahead promises to be another tough one for all of us but especially for those of us who have suffered most since the Celtic Tiger died. Thousands of our brightest and best will emigrate and join the tens of thousands of others who have already left.
While the Government continues to boast about the dole queues getting shorter, we all know the real reason for that is the safety valve of emigration. Spain has the highest level of unemployment in Europe but our jobless figures would be up there with Spain’s but for emigration from Ireland to Australia and other countries in the English-speaking world.
During the year, the Government is going to have to tackle the worsening crisis with regard to the thousands of people who cannot afford to pay their mortgages. While the banks came to us with their begging bowls when they got into trouble a few years ago, those people who bought their homes when times were good have nobody to turn to now when they are in trouble.
The Government cannot expect those people to pay the property tax. It’s not a question of them not wanting to pay. It’s a question of them not being able to pay.
It is another little matter that threatens to rock this Government when the Revenue Commissioners come to collect their pound of flesh from that tax.
Hopefully, Michael Noonan will be able to hammer out a deal on our massive debt burden with our European partners. The very future of our economy depends on a good deal for Ireland being struck.
We will have a Cabinet reshuffle in the autumn after our presidency of the European union comes to an end. There are reports that Michael Noonan wants out of Finance. That might be the chance for Labour’s Joan Burton to step in to the hot seat. However, Fine Gael will want to keep control of the purse strings. Facing the chop are two of the most controversial members of the Government – James Reilly and Phil Hogan.
Another problem the Government will be called on to solve is the Croke Park Agreement with the unions and management. It will have to be renewed or replaced and this is another potential time bomb that could rock the Government in the early part of this year.
The biggest time bomb and one that has nothing to do with the economy is the question of abortion. Any time this matter is discussed, reason goes out the door to be replaced by hysteria. No solution can possibly satisfy everyone.
I think we are eventually going to have another referendum to sort out the mess caused by the original amendment to the Constitution in 1983. However, we have already tried to do that, leaving us as the laughing stock of every civilised country in the world.
So this is what the year ahead has in store for us. I haven’t mentioned the potential storms that threaten to blow up in relation to the proposed water charges or the septic tank registration fees and you can be sure there will be other issues that nobody expected. Yet I am predicting that the Government will weather all the storms, known and unknown, that are lying ahead.
Enjoy the year. Agus go mbeirimid beo ar an am seo arís.