Changes need to benefit the people

COMMENT

The negotiations are underway between Fine Gael and the Labour Party. It was an interesting election and a fascinating count but the timescale for the discussions is not in the hands of those who were elected in the democratic process of last week.

Whoever is in power when the ironing out of policy differences is finished is listening at the moment to the sound of a ticking clock and the clock is located in the heart of Europe. Ireland finds itself essentially powerless and drifting in a sea of new economic chaos. The ship has a new captain and crew but they are subservient to the autopilot settings decided by the EU, the IMF and the ECB.
It is a strange contrast to the whooping joy we saw when TDs were elected by the people. Votes were cast, choices were made and for a brief time it felt as though there might actually be change. Certainly the decimation of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party was historic but the rise of Fine Gael and Labour in their Dáil representation will do little to stave off the hard times that lie ahead.
Ironic with all the talk of a new politics, the most notable aspect of the election was the smugly enjoyed victory for old Civil War politics. The Cheshire cat grins worn by Enda Kenny, Phil Hogan and their colleagues told a story they would have had difficulty articulating. Even ahead of the vote, Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes spoke of “feasting over the carcass of Fianna Fáil”. Gorged and satisfied, Fine Gael must now put their schadenfreude to one side and get to grips with the task at hand.
As neither party now negotiating were in government before the election, we must assume that they are not entirely aware of the full scale of the disaster awaiting them. Certainly, both made promises while hunting for votes but now they may find they simply cannot deliver on them. They will need to consult with those in the civil service who actually know what’s going on.
I’m sure those government employees will be professional enough to forget the fact that Fine Gael wishes to slash their number and reveal the full extent of Irish economic woe. I have no doubt it will come as a shock to the new government when they realise what they are facing. I am reminded of the note left in February by the outgoing Labour chief secretary of the Treasury for his Liberal Democrat successor, David Laws. Rather than offering advice on the running of the office, as it traditionally would, it said simply, “Dear chief secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left”. 
It is this kind of hard economic fact that may end the Fine Gael honeymoon faster than they thought. They, above all parties, are aware of the possibility of massive electoral swings and their effect on a political party. They have just bounced back after suffering a massive spanking at the ballot box in 2002.
Their losses at that time were not as significant as those suffered by Fianna Fáil this time around but realistically, for the health of a political party, the best place to be these days is on the opposition benches.
There are very few pleasant tasks ahead. The coming years will be defined by austerity and tough decisions and whether the party making them has a choice in the matter will not be taken into account when the next opportunity to vote comes around.
It is interesting to note that the inclusion of Labour in a coalition with Fine Gael, as looks the most likely outcome, will be a positive thing for the larger party. The presence of a slightly left-of-centre party in government might dull the edge of the Fine Gael sword just enough to mean slight benefits to the poor and the vulnerable.
If Fine Gael were in a position to conduct one-party government, the ferocity of its cuts would be staggering. By having Labour to temper the situation and, most importantly, to share the blame over the coming years, Fine Gael may ultimately benefit from not achieving an overall majority this time around.
Ireland has been promised a new politics and a new political climate, with the politics of old banished to the past but the fact that concern about the number of backbenchers that will make up the next government and the lack of ministerial portfolios potentially causing problems in the future does not inspire confidence.
Obviously, both parties will wish to have as many of their people in prominent portfolios as possible but petty political quibbling and talk of trouble ahead if egos are bruised by the allocation of posts doesn’t give the impression that anything has changed. It will be interesting to see if Fine Gael is as eager to reduce the number of ministers as it was when in opposition now that it is in a position to do so.
As the new government will find itself so beholden to outside will in the coming years, there are only a few issues with which it will be free to address and how these issues will be tackled will be very interesting indeed.
Where the country will be and what state it will be in when the Irish people next vote in a general election will be different to where it is now. I hope that the lives of the people will be better than they are now, that inequality in society will have been addressed and that frontline public services will not have been decimated. I say hope but really I’m hoping against hope that this will be the case.
Once policies of privatisation and public sector cuts have been implemented it is almost impossible to reverse them, the damage done is permanent.
So maybe the new coalition will bring about significant change in the country; let’s hope that it is right kind of change, the kind that benefits people, not make their lives worse.