Another fine political mess

COMMENT

THEY have a habit in Fine Gael of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. There they have been for the first time in history consistently well ahead of Fianna Fáil in all the opinion polls and in all local, European and byelections.

And now, as the party was poised to take over the running of the country, they are tearing themselves apart.
If I were a Fine Gael man, I would be really annoyed with both sides for this fine mess that the party is in. I would be annoyed with Richard Bruton and his supporters for bringing this about as Fine Gael were about to initiate a no-confidence debate on the Government in the Dáil. And I would be annoyed with Enda Kenny and his supporters for sacking Richard Bruton as deputy leader and spokesman on finance.
But I am not a Fine Gael member. I am a political commentator and political commentators love nothing better than political blood sports. And the more blood that’s on the floor, the more we like it.
At the time of writing, I don’t know how this contest between Enda Kenny and  Richard Bruton is going to turn out. I also believe that even if Enda Kenny wins this time, the knives are out and they will get him eventually.
The fact of the matter is that no matter what the parliamentary Fine Gael party might say, there is no confidence in Enda Kenny’s leadership among the majority of the general public. The same, of course, may be said of Brian Cowen. But Brian Cowen happens to be taoiseach and at the moment, there is no serious attempt within Fianna Fáil to get rid of him.
Opinion polls have consistently shown that the general public do not want either Cowen or Kenny as Taoiseach. But Cowen is safe as long as people like Brian Lenihan remain loyal.
And Kenny was safe until Richard Bruton made his move.
Fianna Fáil have to be delighted with the latest turn of events. The spotlight has been taken off Brian Cowen’s shortcomings and focused on those of Enda Kenny.
I have known both Enda Kenny and Brian Cowen since they were both first elected to the Dáil. I have been in their company on many occasions, have enjoyed a pint or two with each in turn and while both are completely different types of personalities, I have liked them both.
I have admired Brian Cowen but circumstances have worked against him and he is now probably the most unpopular taoiseach of all times. He does not inspire confidence and because of that he is probably not the man to lead us out of our present difficulties.
Enda Kenny never inspired confidence. He was elected leader of Fine Gael when the party was on its knees after the disaster of the 2002 General Election. His supporters can point out that it was under Kenny’s leadership that Fine Gael became, for the first time, the biggest party outside the Dáil.
But it is my opinion, for what it is worth, that Fine Gael would have gained support no matter who was leader. Fianna Fáil became so unpopular that former Fianna Fáil voters would have rallied to Fine Gael in even greater numbers, I believe, if Richard Bruton had been put in charge.
I am not the only person who believes that. Obviously, some of those closest to Enda Kenny and some of the most able people in Fine Gael also believe it. They meet Enda Kenny on a daily basis. They observe his leadership at close quarters and they should be best able to judge his qualities or lack of them.
You might argue that other people, such as Dr James Reilly and Phil Hogan, also have close contact with Enda Kenny and are fully confident in his leadership. Well, I don’t know about Reilly or Hogan but I do believe that a lot of those who are supporting Enda Kenny today in the Fine Gael parliamentary party are doing so out of a sense of loyalty to whoever is leader rather than because they believe he is a more able man than Richard Bruton.
I think it was Ivan Yates who said during the week that the whole political focus now and for the forseeable future has to be on the economy. And which of the two – Kenny or Bruton – would be better able to lead this country out of the present economy crisis? I need hardly answer that question because the answer is so obvious.
And yet Enda Kenny has seen fit to sack from his front bench one of the most able and honest people in Irish politics today.
It was not as if Richard Bruton had come out in open revolt against his leader. Bruton did not make any public criticism of his leader. Everything was properly done behind closed doors.
He may have been wrong in his timing – although the initiative on this was actually taken by Kenny himself but even the proverbial dogs in the street knew what everybody had been saying for the past two years or more: that they would vote for Fine Gael if Richard Bruton rather than Enda Kenny were leader of the party.
It is now accepted that the opinion poll, which was the catalyst for the latest heave against Enda Kenny, was somewhat flawed in its methodology and was far too generous to Labour.
That being so, and in spite of what is happening this week, whoever leads Fine Gael must still be favourites to win the next election.