A bad poll for Fianna Fáil

A combination of anti-Government feeling and a gain in support for Fine Gael nationally is reflected in the results of a new poll, which indicates that the unthinkable could happen – Fianna Fáil could end up with just one seat in Clare after the next general election.
The man in line to lose out is 2007 Clare election table topper, Timmy Dooley. Despite winning 10,791(19.1%) of the votes in the last general election, an online straw-poll by The Clare Herald website now puts his support at just 4.7%. His position in a Clare Champion pre-election poll in April 2007 was 11% so he has a tough task ahead to turn things around.
The poll indicates that Minister for Defence Tony Killeen (11.4%) would be safely home and the two Fine Gael deputies Pat Breen (17.5%) and Joe Carey (15.2%) would also be returned.
The figures have been gleaned from the input of 298 respondents and political observers accept that it is very much in line with what they are hearing around the county. The figures also tally with an online state of the parties poll a month earlier.
One point to consider in respect of the ’Herald poll is that none of the 11 candidates named has, as of yet, confirmed whether or not they will be on the ballot paper whenever the election is called.
In a constituency that has thrown up major election surprises over the past few decades, yet another new face could emerge. Fourteen percent of respondents would vote for AN Other candidate outside the 11 listed.
It has been suggested that if the candidate was to be North Clare councillor Martin Conway, then Fine Gael would be in with a chance of a third seat. Another name mentioned is Michael McNamara from East Clare, who ran for the European Parliament elections. Of course, there’s always the prospect of a person in the public eye from a non-political background coming into the frame and this would certainly add spice to the election.
With a showing of 8.8%, Sinn Féin’s Anna Prior is in fourth spot, indicating a considerable improvement on her 3.4% return in 2007. However, the traditional failure of Sinn Féin candidates to pick up enough transfers to keep in the field points to yet another early exit at the count. Labour’s Pascal Fitzgerald has 6.7% support but it is understood the party is on the lookout for another candidate.
Former Independent TD, James Breen, who lost his seat in the last election, is listed among the prospective candidates but the likelihood of a comeback isn’t on the cards. The straw poll puts him on just 6.1%. He’s just ahead of the Green Party’s Brian Meaney with 5.4%.
Timmy Dooley is tied with Tony Mulcahy of Fine Gael on 4.7%, while a previous candidate. Independent Patricia McCarthy is on 3% but is highly unlikely to run. Former TD, Madeleine Taylor Quinn, who hasn’t quite ruled out making another attempt to return to the Dáil, is on 2.4%. She won 6.4% of the vote on 2007.
The straw-poll is sure to set tongues wagging among political pundits, even among those sceptical of such matters, but it is certainly a useful yardstick by which potential candidates can measure their chances of claiming one of the four Dáil seats on offer in Clare.